Buy Low, Sell High (Offseason Edition)

The offseason is officially here and that means one thing, it’s time to make some trades.  Here’s my list of a few of the guys that I think you can sell high and get more for them than they’ll produce in 2018 and some buy low guys that will outperform what they did this season.  As always, you can hear what I have to say in reaction to any of the offseason news here.

-Renshaw

SELL HIGH

buy low sell high Derrick Henry Dynasty Dads

Derrick Henry

As I write this the last time Derek Henry played he led the Titans backfield with 23 carries, 156 rushing yards and a touchdown against a Chiefs defense in the wild card round of the playoffs. That’s the exact reason he’s on my sell high list, I do not see him doing that on a weekly basis in 2018. Now is the time to sell him after a huge week and the perception that he will be the lead dog in 2018. Even if DeMarco Murray is cut (he’s under contract for 2018 with the Titans) Henry isn’t going to be a top 12 running back in 2018 and that’s how he’s valued at the moment. He doesn’t catch passes, in 2017 he had 11 receptions, so even if he does become the starter in Tennessee the Titans will probably be bringing in a pass catching compliment to Henry (again, assuming DeMarco is cut). Pass protection isn’t something that Henry excels at either, which is something that could keep him from becoming a true three-down running back. Oh, and Mike Mularkey is back as the head coach of the Titans and he’s the guy that started Murry over Henry all season, there are so many negatives pointing at Henry I’d gladly sell while his price is sky high and reap the benefits of someone else paying too much.


 

buy low sell high Adam Thielen Vikings Dynasty Dads

Adam Thielen

You want some interesting stats regarding Thielen? 2017 was the first year he started in all 16 games. 2017 was the first year Thielen caught more than 70 passes. 2017 was NOT the first year that Thielen had the same quarterback for every game he played. I think that trend continues, and I don’t think that Case Keenum comes back to the Vikings. Teddy is coming back to the Vikings and that hurts Thielen, he’s got to learn to play with another QB, and frankly one who doesn’t do the same things that Keenum does. Even if Keenum does come back, it seems like his Offensive Coordinator will not be back, which I see as a negative for Thielen’s value. Most people are going to look at the stats and see that Thielen finished as a top 10 WR, take advantage of those owners.


buy low sell high AJ Green Bengals Dynasty Dads

AJ Green

Here is one that may be a little surprising, as Mr. Green finished the season as WR10. Here’s some interesting stats from the 2017 season for him. Three games over 100 yards this year, 0 touchdowns in the second half of the season, under 80 receptions, and will be 30 by the time he plays his first snap of 2018. Oh, and next year he will still have Andy Dalton as his QB who can’t seem to throw the deep ball. One last stat, Bill Lazor will come back as OC for the Bengals. The same OC that couldn’t figure out how to get his best player the ball. I’m a big believer in selling a guy a year early, rather than a year late. This is the year I’m selling AJ Green while he’s still got a high return rate for fantasy owners.


BUY LOW

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Jimmy Garoppolo

Who led the NFL in passing yards from week 12 on? Jimmy G. Who went 5-0 in his first five starts as a 49er? Jimmy G. Who is the franchise QB that you should go out and buy right now? Jimmy G. He’s a 26 year old QB in a Kyle “High Scoring” Shanahan offensive scheme that was just ranked the best offensive scheme in the NFL by Bleacher Report. Look at what Jimmy G did the last 5 weeks of the season with the weapons he had, his top WR was Marquise Goodwin. An upgrade to the receiving core is coming, mark my words. The fact that he shredded the number one ranked defense in 2017 (The Jags) should have given you all the proof you needed that Jimmy G was the next great QB in the NFL, and you need to buy him before it’s too late.


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Tarik Cohen

This has a lot to do with who the new Bears head coach is (Matt Nagey) than anything else. I love the hire for the Bears offensive skill position players and see a huge jump in fantasy production for Cohen because of it. I see Cohen being a “Darren Sproles” like RB for the Bears and could actually lead them in receptions next year. Cohen is an undersized speedster, and the last undersized speedster that Nagey was the coach of just happened to finish as a top 10 player at their position (Tyreek Hill). I’m buying Cohen everywhere I can because I trust the new coaching staff to use their best players to the teams benefit and Cohen is clearly one of the team’s best offensive weapons.


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Jordan Mathews

Yes. All the yes in the world. Jordan Matthews has suffered from poor QB play in his 4 years in the league. Let’s look at Jordan Matthews career stats, shall we? He’s got 250 receptions, 2955 receiving yards, averages 11.8 yards per reception and has 20 TD’s over those four year.

Over the same four year stretch that’s more receptions than

  • Alshon Jeffery
  • Jordy Nelson
  • Dez Bryant
  • Devante Adams

Over that same four year stretch that’s more touchdowns than

  • Kelvin Benjamin
  • Amari Cooper
  • Stefon Diggs
  • Robert Woods

Over the same four year stretch that’s more receiving yards than

  • Amari Cooper
  • Allen Robinson
  • Marvin Jones  
  • Devante Adams

Matthews is a free agent this offseason and he gets to pick his team, he’ll be picking a team that has a better QB than Tyrod Taylor/Mark Sanchez/Nick Foles/Sam Bradford. He’s the ultimate buy-low candidate, and the stats are there to prove it.


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